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HomeCare Market Research & Opportunity Analysis

Deep Research for Pre-Seed Pitch Deck | April 2026

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1. The $88B Problem — Cost of Inaction

Preventable home emergencies cost the US healthcare system $88B+ per year. This figure represents the total economic burden across three major threat categories affecting seniors living at home.

Cost Breakdown by Threat Category

Deep Dive: How the $50B Falls Figure Is Calculated

Primary source: Florence CS, Bergen G, Atherly A, et al. "Medical Costs of Fatal and Nonfatal Falls in Older Adults." Journal of the American Geriatrics Society (JAGS), 2018.

Data year: 2015

Methodology: Quasi-experimental regression analysis comparing total healthcare spending of older adults who experienced falls against a matched control group who did not fall, isolating the incremental cost attributable to falls.

Data sources used:

• National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) — fatal fall counts (N=28,486 deaths)
• Medicare Current Beneficiaries Survey (MCBS, 2011) — nonfatal fall costs (N=3,460 respondents)
• Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS) — cost modeling

Cost breakdown by payer:

What IS included:

• Hospitalization (inpatient stays)
• Emergency department visits
• Outpatient / physician services
• Post-acute rehabilitation
• Fatal fall costs (medical + lost productivity for deaths)

What is NOT included (making $50B conservative):

• Long-term care facility admission costs after fall-related disability
• Informal caregiver costs (family members who stop working to care for injured parent)
• Home modifications post-fall (grab bars, ramps, stairlifts)
• Psychological costs (fear of falling → activity restriction → accelerated decline → more falls)
• Non-medical costs (legal, insurance administration, social services)
• Lost productivity of the injured person
• Quality of life deterioration (not monetized)

Updated to $80B (2024 CDC Study)

A 2024 CDC study recalculated using 2020 data and found non-fatal falls alone now cost approximately $80B/year:

Acute care breakdown: 922,428 inpatient visits + 2.3M ED visits = $19.8B in acute care costs alone

Why the jump from $50B → $80B in 5 years:

1. Population growth — 6M more Americans over 65 between 2015 and 2020
2. Healthcare cost inflation — medical costs rose ~20% in the period
3. Better data capture — 2020 study captured more outpatient and rehabilitation costs that were undercounted in 2015
4. Longer survival with disability — more falls resulting in expensive long-term care rather than death

What This Means for the Pitch

The $50B on the slide is the peer-reviewed, CDC-backed, conservative figure. In investor conversations, the follow-up is:

"We use $50B because it's the most-cited peer-reviewed number. But the CDC's own 2024 update puts non-fatal falls alone at $80B. Add delayed discovery costs and home fires, and the real number is likely $120B+. Our $88B headline is deliberately conservative."

Investor takeaway: The $88B figure is likely conservative. Using updated CDC data, falls alone cost ~$80B, making the real total closer to $120B+.

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2. Current Prevention Spending — The $2B Gap

While the problem costs $88B+, current spending on prevention technology is only ~$2B in the US. This 44:1 ratio between damage and prevention is the core market opportunity.

Where Prevention Dollars Go Today

The Critical Distinction: Treatment vs. Prevention

Investor takeaway: The healthcare system spends $80B treating falls but only ~$2B trying to prevent them. Every $1 invested in prevention technology that reduces falls by even 10% would save $8 in treatment costs.

Why Prevention Spending Is So Low

1. Medicare doesn't cover PERS — Original Medicare excludes personal emergency response systems. Only some Medicare Advantage plans cover them.
2. Legacy tech doesn't work — 80% of falls happen without the pendant being worn or pressed.
3. No passive alternatives existed — Until radar-based monitoring, the only options were cameras (rejected for privacy) or wearables (rejected for compliance).
4. Reimbursement codes catching up — New CMS RPM codes (2024-2026) are lowering thresholds for remote monitoring reimbursement.

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3. The Demographic Tsunami — Why Now

US Population 65+ Growth

10-year growth (2024→2035): +28% — adding 16.8M people to the 65+ cohort.

The Fastest-Growing Segments Are the Most Vulnerable

Key Demographic Stats for Investors

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4. Market Sizing — TAM / SAM / SOM

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM)

Combined SAM: ~$25B (US), growing at ~12% CAGR

Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) — First 3 Years

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5. Regulatory Tailwinds

CMS Remote Patient Monitoring Expansion (2024-2026)

Monthly reimbursement per patient: up to $148/mo — far exceeding HomeCare's €29/mo subscription price.

Investor takeaway: CMS reimbursement alone could cover HomeCare's entire subscription cost and then some. This creates a path to $0 out-of-pocket for the consumer — the ultimate adoption accelerator.

State-Level Initiatives

• New York MLTC plans covering remote monitoring
• California CalAIM initiative funding home-based care technology
• Texas STAR+PLUS waiver including assistive technology
• Florida expanded home care technology benefits

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6. The Investment Thesis — Numbers That Matter

The Gap Equation

Why This Market Tips Now (2026)

1. Technology inflection — 60GHz radar sensors hit consumer price points (~$15/chip) for the first time in 2024-2025.
2. Demographic inflection — All Baby Boomers will be 65+ by 2030. The 85+ segment grows at 5%/yr.
3. Regulatory inflection — CMS RPM codes create reimbursement pathway that didn't exist 2 years ago.
4. Competitive vacuum — Big Tech retreated; legacy PERS broken; AI startups B2B-only.
5. Cultural inflection — 75% of seniors want to age in place, but families need peace of mind.

The $2B → $25B Opportunity

The PERS market ($2B) is mature and growing slowly (5-6%). But it's being absorbed into the larger aging-in-place technology market ($9.1B, 15% CAGR) and remote patient monitoring market ($14.2B, 12.8% CAGR). The convergence creates a $25B+ opportunity.

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7. Summary — Key Numbers for the Pitch Deck

Sources: CDC, CMS, US Census Bureau, NFPA, AARP, ACL, BMJ, JMIR Aging, BMC Geriatrics, Grand View Research, MarketsandMarkets, Market Data Forecast, S&P Global, Straits Research, Data M Intelligence, TheSeniorList.